Olivier Awards nominations predictions – who will be recognised?

The Olivier Awards are hurtling towards us at speed, so with that in mind we’ve decided to stick our theorising heads above the parapets and stare into the harsh no-man’s-land of speculation ahead of the nominations announcement next Tuesday.

Which shows might pick up the most nominations? What might go away empty handed? Obviously the greatest thrill comes in the unpredictable, but sometimes it’s fun to make some of our ill-founded theories known to the wider world.

The Olivier Awards, hosted by Beverley Knight and Billy Porter, will take place on 6 April, back at the Royal Albert Hall.

The new writing field is incredibly strong

I can’t remember a previous year where the calibre of new writing vying for nominations was so strong. Three shows feel like they’ve got nomination spots locked in. Firstly there’s Joe Murphy and Joe Robertson’s Kyoto, which sees the climate catastrophe through an unending prism of linguistic squabbling, followed by Mark Rosenblatt’s Giant, detailing the horrific antisemitic opinions of Roald Dahl, and Eline Arbo’s The Years, based on Annie Ernaux’s seminal text.

Where the fourth spot might go is trickier to pin down – personally I’d love to see Benedict Lombe’s magical two-hander Shifters winning a spot. Other options could include Jeremy O Harris’ Slave Play, which was a record-setting hit at the Tony nominations when it was seen on Broadway.

Musical revivals will be a tough fight

This is going to be a fascinating category. Historically, the Oliviers have opted for either three or four nominees in the Best Musical Revival (the last two years was four), rounding out a total of eight shows between new and revived shows. This year we can’t imagine it not being four shows, simply due to the fact there are some enormous productions on offer – from the seven-time WhatsOnStage Award-winning Starlight Express, going toe-to-toe with Cameron Mackintosh’s heavily garlanded new take on Oliver!, settling in for a lengthy stay at the Gielgud Theatre.

In terms of limited runs that also fared well in 2024, there’s the Imelda Staunton-led Hello, Dolly! (it’d be unimaginable for that not to be included), alongside Regent’s Park Open Air Theatre’s profoundly moving outdoor staging of Fiddler on the Roof (returning for a new run at the Barbican this summer). Speaking of the Barbican, the glitzy Bartlett Sher revival of Kiss Me, Kate was also a headline-making production – but will it grab one of the four spaces, or be muscled out?

New musicals is wide open 

If four musical revivals are recognised, it would probably mean space for four new musicals to fill out that category. There doesn’t seem to be any easy frontrunner this year. It would be wonderful for Oliviers voters to put some weight behind boutique successes like The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Kathy and Stella Solve a Murder! or Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812 – all shows driven by ensemble-led storytelling. Some questions remain: could Toby Marlow and Lucy Moss’ Why Am I So Single? squeeze into the final four? With some of the best tunes and lyrics seen on a London stage this year, there’s a case to be made.

There are, of course, big blockbuster hits like Mean Girls (which fared well at the Tony Award nominations and won the WhatsOnStage Award for Best New Musical), MJ and The Devil Wears Prada that could be recognised. One final thought – will Celine Dion comedy Titanique opt for the musical categories or angle for Best Entertainment?

Play revivals – a level playing field? 

The level playing field also extends to the Play Revivals category. Robert Icke seems to have pitted two of his shows against one another with Player Kings and Oedipus, though we’d put money on the latter featuring prominently in the nominations list. Another couple of shoe-ins could be James Macdonald’s much-loved revival of Waiting for Godot with Ben Whishaw and Lucian Msamati, as well as Max Webster’s brilliant crowdpleaser take on The Importance of Being Earnest with Ncuti Gatwa and Sharon D Clarke (we could also see those two “bagging” noms). Whereabouts would the fourth spot go? The Oliviers voters have (rightfully) been big supporters of Rebecca Frecknall, so it could go to her take on Cat on a Hot Tin Roof, which ran at the Almeida over Christmas.

Other contenders could include the stellar revival of Machinal at the Old Vic (led by rising star Rosie Sheehy), Alexander Zeldin’s The Other Place (though based on a Greek classic, this could also be classed as a new play), Complicité’s Mnemonic, the Dominic West-led revival of A View from the Bridge, which picked up stellar reviews, or the Brian Cox / Patricia Clarkson Long Day’s Journey Into Night. We don’t envy Oliviers voters trying to call this one!

The Best Entertainment or Comedy category continues to… entertain  

The Entertainment category has always been a fun one. It is, to some extent, the Best New Play category’s quirky cousin where shows that prioritise levity can gain more of a foothold, we predict shows like Fawlty Towers, Spirited Away and Inside No 9 will make up the shortlist. One oddity could be Celine Dion comedy musical Titanique, which may swerve the new musical category in favour of the less cluttered waters of entertainment. We’d also bet that the mega-hit Ballet Shoes might opt for either this category or Best Family Show. All will be revealed soon!

Creative categories

Straying from the more clear-cut world of show categories into the less transparent space of creative categories, it’s hard to make any obvious predictions. In terms of technical spectacle, Starlight Express should surely pick up some nominations, while it’d be excellent for the dab hand Luke Sheppard to be recognised for his work steering the mega-musical back to London. Icke and Arbo also feel like shoe-ins for director, while the musical achievements in shows like Benjamin Button would also make for great headlines. Other technical blockbusters that could fare well include Spirited Away, which felt right at home within the confines of the London Coliseum.

Performances

Again, this year feels nice and open for performance categories. Best Actor-wise, the likes of Mark Strong (Oedipus), John Lithgow (Giant) and Adrien Brody (The Fear of 13) are the closest to certs (Brody could win an Oscar and Olivier in the same year, which is pretty neat). Gatwa could make it four, though there may be some upsets there.

Actress-wise, Oedipus star Lesley Manville is a strong bet, while the entire cast of The Years may push to be nominated together – otherwise they’d have a hard time competing solo. We’d love to see some unexpected names appear here, especially emerging talent like the brilliant Francesca Amewudah-Rivers, the best thing in Jamie Lloyd’s production of Romeo and Juliet this summer, while we adored Earnest‘s magnificent Ronkẹ Adékoluẹjo and Machinal‘s Sheehy.

On the musical side, MJ star Myles Frost‘s nomination also feels highly likely, while nods for Benjamin Button‘s John Dagleish and Clare Foster would be wonderful. Another rising star Chumisa Dornford-May, brilliant in Great Comet, would be a fab nod on the musical performance side, as well as co-stars Declan Bennett, Jamie Muscato and Maimuna Memon. This could also be the category where some of Mean Girls’ brilliant ensemble are recognised, while some love for the committed cast of Why Am I So Single? would not go amiss. Amy di Bartolomeo, the best thing in The Devil Wears Prada, would also be a worthy nominee.